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Former President Trump is 20 points ahead of VP Kamala Harris on betting platform Polymarket. The situation has raised suspicions but Tarek Mansour, founder of Kalshi, denies any manipulation. Mansour reveals the average bet for Harris is larger and counters foreign tampering, as Kalshi only allows American participants. The count of people predicting Trump’s victory in the November election on Kalshi aligns with Trump’s lead on Polymarket. Notably, Trump’s odds on the platform saw a substantial uplift from October, having been behind or only narrowly ahead of Harris for most of August and September.

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People are raising eyebrows because former President Trump is 20 points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket, a betting platform. Some think that the numbers are being manipulated, but Tarek Mansour, the founder of another betting site called Kalshi, says no – it’s legit.

Mansour refutes the idea that rich bettors are upping the odds for Trump. He points out that the average bet for Harris is actually bigger, at $85, compared to Trump’s average of $58.

So, why the 20-point lead for Trump on Polymarket? More folks on Kalshi are putting their money on Trump, and the numbers on both betting sites match up. The count of people predicting Trump’s victory in the November election on Kalshi is roughly the same as Trump’s lead on Polymarket.

Unlike Polymarket, which is international, Kalshi only allows Americans to participate. Mansour thinks this rules out the chance of foreign tampering with the odds. His final point? He reckons prediction markets are an unbiased source for predicting results.

People have been debating whether these prediction markets are better than the traditional polls. Even big shots like Elon Musk think that when people bet their own money, the predictions tend to be more accurate. However, some critics argue that because only non-Americans can use Polymarket, its results may not be accurate.

It’s worth noting that VP Harris was leading Trump on Polymarket for most of August and September. When Trump did pull ahead, it was usually by just a few percentage points. From October though, his odds experienced a steep rise on the prediction platform.

Source: Cointelegraph